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Vol. 17, No. 2
Article 2 of 10
February 20, 2007
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Winter Reality Check By Pat Guinan The recent cold and snowy weather is a reminder of what winters can be like in Missouri and, believe it or not, the verdict is still out whether this meteorological winter (Dec-Jan-Feb) will be below normal since December and the first half of January were unusually mild. Much below normal temperatures will need to continue throughout this month in order to offset the early winter warm spell. In addition to the recent cold spell, Missouri has experienced three major winter storms, including an historical ice storm. For many locations, it has been the snowiest winter in 12 years the coldest winter in four years. If you think Missouri's been experiencing some mild winters of late, you're absolutely right. According to Figure 1, only five of the past 20 winter seasons have been colder than normal. In fact, four of the past nine winter seasons have ranked in the top ten warmest winters on record for Missouri since 1895. Currently, we are experiencing one of the warmest winter trends on record for the state. Additionally, Figure 1 illustrates mild and cool winter trends in the past. For example, from 1920 to 1954, 27 out of 35 winter seasons were above normal. A cool period followed shortly thereafter (1957-1985) when 17 out of 28 winters were below normal. It is very diffi cult to pinpoint all the underlying causes that result in these regional temperature trends for Missouri and which ones have the largest influence. Still, the recent trend toward warmer winters gives us more reason to pay closer attention to these climatological changes.
Pat Guinan |
